Guinea has returned to the ballot box today for the first time since the military coup of September 2021, a moment many citizens hoped would mark a clear break from years of political instability. Instead, the vote is unfolding under the long shadow of the man who seized power nearly four years ago: junta leader Mamady Doumbouya, now the clear favourite to emerge as president.
Polling stations opened across the country amid tight security, with voters casting ballots in an election that is being closely watched both at home and abroad. For some Guineans, the day carries cautious optimism. For others, it is clouded by concern that the process may entrench military rule rather than restore genuine civilian governance.
Doumbouya rose to prominence on 5 September 2021, when he led elite special forces in the dramatic arrest of then-president Alpha Condé. The coup followed months of unrest over Condé’s controversial third term, which itself was made possible by a disputed constitutional change. Doumbouya appeared on state television shortly after the takeover, declaring the dissolution of government and institutions, and promising a “new beginning” free from corruption, ethnic politics, and constitutional manipulation.
In the months that followed, the junta suspended the existing constitution and ruled by decree. Doumbouya appointed a transitional government and vowed to go back to a civilian-led rule in Guinea. However, dates kept shifting, which attracted anger from opposition parties and even African associations such as ECOWAS.
One of the most notable aspects of the current election is the revamped constitution in Guinea. During the transition, a new constitution was implemented, which changed the rules of candidacy, paving the way for Doumbouya to run in the presidency. Those in favor of this new constitution suggest that it is in line with reality in Guinea, which aims to fix a broken system in the country. Those opposed suggest that it was designed for the ambition of the head of the junta, much like Doumbouya before, which he once denounced.
Some of the top opposition leaders had been disqualified from running either through court challenges and/or political disqualifications and detention. The lack of these leaders has impacted on a race that is now perceived to be very lopsided.
Despite these reservations, Doumbouya still enjoys the support of certain layers of society. Many attribute to him the return of some degree of stability after years of underlying tension, the tackling of corruption on the surface, and upholding the sovereignty of Guinea on the international and regional scene. The image of the disciplined soldiersman who resisted the politics of excesses still holds sway, especially among the youth, who are disaffected by the traditional politicians.
The international community is also observing closely for signs of transparency, voter turnout, and a commitment to democratic principles.The outcome of the vote is expected to influence Guinea’s relations with partners across West Africa and beyond, as well as determine whether sanctions and diplomatic pressures ease or intensify.
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As Guineans vote today, the central question remains unresolved: does this election represent a genuine transition toward democratic rule, or does it formalise the power of a man who first came to office through force? The answer will shape Guinea’s political trajectory for years to come.
