The fragile truce involving the United States, Israel, and Iran has faced immediate challenges, with accusations of violations from both sides, as reported on 7NEWS.
The temporary ceasefire initially reduced “war premium” volatility, leading to a slow decrease in global oil prices. The reopening of the crucial Strait of Hormuz to shipping was key, yet damaged infrastructure and lingering market fears means prices are likely to stay elevated for months.
The immediate impact of the temporary ceasefire is fuel prices, which saw sharp increases, began to stabilise or sharply drop.
Despite the cease fire, energy experts advise that structural damage to oil infrastructure and high shipping insurance premiums will keep fuel and energy costs higher than pre- conflict levels for several months.
The long-term uncertainty is that the ceasefire is described as “fragile” and a potential for a resumed conflict after the temporary truce is causing volatility, limiting how far prices can fall.
If the Middle East ceasefire collapses, it likely triggers an intense escalation, with Israel prepared to strike Iranian energy facilities and Iran threatening a complete closure of the crucial Strait of Hormuz. The conflict could escalate to direct, long-scale confrontations, disrupting the global energy market, stalling trade, and increasing risks of a broader regional war.
Some of the key consequences of a collapsed ceasefire include economic disruption because it could lead to intensified regional fighting, stalling global trade, and increasing fuel prices, according to insight from the World Bank.
If the ceasefire in the Middle East collapses, Sierra Leone is expected to face an immediate and severe surge in fuel prices, potentially surpassing the significant increases already seen in early 2026. As a 100% importer of refined petroleum products, the country is highly vulnerable to global oil supply shocks, particularly disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, which can trigger severe local fuel shortages and inflation.
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Following a temporary ease of prices during a brief April 2026 ceasefire, a collapse would likely cause prices to jump back up, building on the increases that saw petrol and diesel hit NLe32.00 per litre in early 2026.
A breakdown of the ceasefire likely means a renewed blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, which transports a large portion of global oil. This could lead to shortages in Sierra Leone, with importers struggling to secure cargoes.
The Government of Sierra Leone (GoSL) previously indicated that it may not be able to sustain subsidies, meaning global price increases are passed s directly to consumers, leading to “full pass-through” pricing.
