Preliminary reports emerging from the December 28th, 2025, presidential election in the West African state of Guinea indicate a clear lead by incumbent President Mamadi Doumbouya, a defining moment in its turbulent politics since the 2021 military coup.
Early election results coming in from polling stations in some key regions, including Kankan and Faranah, indicate a significant lead by Doumbouya, with opposition candidates far behind in the contest. Even though the election commission has not yet announced any official results, there is existing controversy surrounding whether this election is indeed a transition to a civilian-led government or a continuation of power by the military government leadership.
It cannot be overemphasized, in fact, that, for Guineans, it is impossible to consider this election without recalling developments of September 5, 2021, when a coup orchestrated by Colonel Doumbouya, then a colonel and chief of the Special Forces, overthrew Alpha Condé, who had decided in a highly divisive move to attempt a third term as president. This decision had been widely criticized by citizens’ associations, opposition parties, and international bodies.
The coup leaders’ motives were explained by Doumbouya as a response to high levels of corruption and mismanagement in the country and as a “defense” of all Guineans from “corruption and inequity.” Pictures quickly circulated around the world of Condé being arrested by soldiers, but although the African Union and ECOWAS issued condemnation over the coup in Guinea, it is fair to say that many people in Guinea supported it.
Over the ensuing months, the ruling military junta the so-called National Committee of Reconciliation and Development—promised a transition toward constitutional order. Political activities were banned, key institutions were dissolved, and a transition timetable became a recurring bone of contention between the junta and both domestic actors and international partners.
The most contentious measure perhaps was the adoption of a new constitutional framework enabling Doumbouya to run for president. According to the critics, the process has elbowed significant voices of opposition and tilted the political playing field in favor of the ruling authorities. The supporters, however, insist that changes were inevitable to give an upward kick-start to the political system of Guinea after years of instability.
In this scenario, Saturday’s vote passed amidst heavy security, and turnout was mixed. In the strongholds of Doumbouya, particularly in Upper Guinea, the early figures indicate overwhelming support. Opposition camps have already complained about fairness and access, but no comprehensive assessment has so far been made.
As electoral authorities continue to collate results across the country, attention is turning to what a Doumbouya victory would mean in practice. Would it usher in a genuine civilian-led administration with inclusive governance or consolidate the influence of the military in Guinean political life?
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At least for now, however, there is little doubt as to the dominance at the ballot box, but whether that equates to stability, reconciliation, or democratic credibility in the long-term future remains very much up in the air.
